Under Construction

Half of the Dozen

Julian Castro suspended his campaign on January 2, 2020. Marianne Williamson dropped out on January 10, 2020. Cory Booker announced the end of his campaign on January 13, 2020. Twelve Democrats remain in the race for their party’s Presidential nomination.

12 Candidates as of 13-Jan-2020

Three of those remaining are late entries. Two actually have the kind of wealth that Donald Trump pretends to have. Six qualified for the January 14th debate in Des Moines, Iowa.

06 Debaters on 14-Jan-2020 500W
Keeping Score

I watched the debate and kept score based on my less than humble opinion. I watched a couple hours of analysis following the debate and kept score based on the opinions of the commentators. I checked and merged the results of the latest Iowa and New Hampshire poles. Since May 1, 2019. I’ve been keeping track of all[1] of the Presidential candidates, selecting one at “random”,[2] and giving that candidate one point.[3]
 

My less than Humble Evaluation

By my tally, the candidates’ performances ranked like this:

  1. Elizabeth Warren
    Elizabeth seemed most in control of the debate. She was able to handle whatever questions were directed at her. Her experience as a college teacher and her extensive plans for dealing with our nation’s problems were apparent. She lost points during her altercation with Bernie Sanders.
     
  2. Joe Biden and Amy Klobuchar tied for second place.
    Joe adequately handled the questions directed at him, but didn’t display the same level of energy he did in the December debate.
     
    Amy matched Elizabeth Warren’s command of the situation, but seemed incapable of fitting her responses into the time allotted for responses. She had to be reminded by the moderator that here time was up on almost every question … often several times on a single response.
     
  3. Pete Buttigieg
    The more time Pete has to talk in one of these debates, the less impressed I am with his performance. I think that part of the problem is that these events are not true debates. They’re really “two hours of moderators asking questions”, but that’s not a title likely to attract viewers. Pete did better in the earlier events when the limited time per candidate forced a more debate-like give and take.
     
  4. Tom Steyer
     As my reader’s know, I’m not one of Tom’s fans, but he did make some good points in this debate. His presentation was incredibly stiff. He seemed to be reciting his answers rather than simply expressing. His lack of experience in up-front[4] politics showed.
     
  5. Bernie Sanders
    For me, Bernie lacks specifics. His ideas are great, but I’d like to hear more about how he plans to get us from where we are to where he wants to lead us. To his credit, he was more specific about the tax increases that will be needed to support “Medicare for All”. Bernie lost the same number of points as Elizabeth Warren for his part in  their “disagreement”.
     
Latest Iowa and New Hampshire Polls Combined

When combined, the latest polls from Iowa and New Hampshire produced this ranking of the candidates:

  1. Bernie Sanders
  2. Pete Buttigieg
  3. Joe Biden
  4. Elizabeth Warren
  5. Amy Klobuchar
  6. Tom Steyer
     
The Correspondents and Pundits

I listened to couple of hours of post-debate discussion on MSNBC and, did my best to tabulate the pros and cons expressed by the discussion participants. Sometimes it was a bit hard to follow (as open discussions sometimes are). The resultant ranking was:

  1. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren tied for first place,
  2. Joe Biden and Tom Steyer tied for second, and
  3. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar tied for third.
     
Random Fluctuations in the Universe

Two hundred and fifty-four days of random selections yielded these results:

  1. Amy Klobuchar
  2. Joe Biden
  3. Bernie Sanders
  4. Pete Buttigieg
  5. Elizabeth Warren
  6. Tom Steyer
     
To Sum It All Up 

Adding the scores (not the rankings) across all tabulations produces this ordering:

  1. Elizabeth Warren
  2. Joe Biden
  3. Bernie Sanders
  4. Pete Buttigieg
  5. Amy Klobuchar
  6. Tom Steyer
     

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End Notes
  1. As of the evening of January 17, 2020, there are 15 nationally declared candidates for the office of President of the United States … 12 Democrats and 3 Republicans (including President Trump).
     
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  2. I put the word “random” in quotes because I generate the daily selection using a random number generator available in Windows 10 command language. As anyone who has taken even a few courses in computer science knows software algorithms generate pseudo-random numbers rather than true random numbers.
     
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  3. Yes, I know this sounds like total nonsense, but I contend that the day to day fluctuations of public opinion are little more than random fluctuations of the Universe … especially at this point in the campaign. I know that I should give President Trump much more weight than the other two Republicans, but that would mean that I’d have to raise the sum of the weights of the Democrats to match Trump weight + 2. Figuring out that algorithm and coding it in a Windows command language *.BAT file is too much like work. In time, there will be only 2 candidates anyway.
     
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  4. Tom Steyer has done a lot of good work between leaving his business career and his run for President. That work (and growing his business) show that he has skill in planning and engaging others in those plans. It’s not clear how far that can go as the up-front manRock for the Executive Branch of the Federal Government. There can be little doubt that he has more presidential qualities than Donald Trump, but all 12 Democrats, both of the other Republicans, … and the average rock … have more presidential qualities than Trump.
     
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