Fall in Line!
Bill Clinton once said, “Democrats want to fall in love; Republicans just fall in line.” In 2024, too many in the Washington, D.C. chattering class, the House and Senate, and the printed and electronic media seem to have changed that to “Democrats want a divorce; Republicans want an autocracy.” The Republicans have more than “fallen in line”. They’ve become completely enthralled by a narcissistic, flim-flam artist and loser who has been lying about anything and everything since his Daddy bought his way into (and through) college.
Where’s the Beef?
I’ve been wary of the Republicans since Richard Nixon “encouraged” me to leave the party of my father and grandfather and re-register as an Independent. Unlike the stereotype, the older I get; the more liberal I get. On cable news, somebody cries, “the polls … the polls” several times every hour. I’ll get to them, but I think Congressional critics need to be questioned first.
I’ve noticed a difference among members of the Congressional Democratic Caucus … particularly those in the House. A few days ago (July 5th), I heard brief interviews from two different representatives … Representative Mike Quigley of Illinois and Representative Eric Swalwell of California.
I had never heard of Representative Quigley. He is calling for Joe Biden to step aside “for the sake of the Party”. With a demeanor that reminded me of Eeyore in Winnie-the-Pooh, he seemed deeply concerned that Biden would prevent the Democratic Party from taking back the House. Is he concerned about the House or his seat in it? If he’s concerned about his job, he should be showing his constituents why he’s the best person for the job instead of whining about the President.
Representative Swalwell has been prominent in the House Democratic caucus since he ran for the Party’s Presidential nomination in 2020. Back then, in a primary debate, he said that candidates like Joe Biden should step aside and let younger members take the reins. Now, after seeing what President Biden has accomplished, he enthusiastically supports a second term for the President and his administration. Representative Swalwell is sure President Biden and his team can beat Trump again.
But What about the Polls?
In an earlier post, I asked “Who are the Pollsters Polling?” (I have yet to receive an answer with regards to national polls.) Now, I’d like to know WHAT they are asking and HOW are they asking it? Both the what and the how make a big difference.
What?
The term “leading question” implies that the question is expressed in a way that is likely to elicit a particular answer. The most obvious form of this is something like, “The flood of advertisements, phone calls, and e-mails during an election year is exhausting, right?” Poll questions aren’t that obvious, Whether by intent or incompetence, polls have more subtle ways of skewing the results. Here are some examples:
- Consider these two questions. Which candidate’s name do you think most pollsters would use in each question?
Do you think _______ is too old to be our next president?
Do you think _______ supports our allies around the world? - Who do you think is more qualified to handle the economy?
In 2020, COVID-19 crashed the economy all over the world. Most economists predicted a recession after the pandemic. Much of the developed world experienced such a recession. The United States did not. Who handled the economic recovery? (Hint: It wasn’t Donald Trump.) - Do you believe that the United States is a horrible, crime-ridden and deteriorating place that can only be fixed by a “strongman” leader?
Do you believe that together the people of the United States can accomplish anything and that we are the envy of the world? - Which candidate is most likely to cheat on his wife?
(I couldn’t resist ending the list with this one. 😉)
How?
It’s practically impossible to create efficient and reasonably accurate poll questions that totally eliminate leading questions. The object is to keep the questions as unbiased as possible.
- Most of the examples above are binary. Their form implies a choice between two choices … “Yes or No”, “Biden or Trump”, etc. Such questions are easy to score, but don’t discriminate very well.
- On the other end, “What do you think about …” (aka “essay”) questions gather a lot of information, but are hard to score.
- Multiple choice questions provide more discrimination and are easy to score. (“All of the Above” and “None of the Above” are not good options.)
- In college, I had a Psychology professor who had developed a hybrid between “True or False” and “Multiple Choice”. The questions had a stem and a list of options, one of which was true OR one of them was false. The correct answer was the one that was different. The questions were easy to score and his research had indicated that they discriminated better than either of the merged formats used by itself.
- I’m fond of semantic differentials … the questions that seek one’s level of agreement on a scale of 1 to 5. They’re obviously leading questions, but nobody’s trying to disguise it.
The Best Way to Lose
My question for the Democrats is “Do you want to win or do you want to lose?” If you want to win, stop attacking your own candidate. (Both Psychological research and eons of Magical practice agree that constantly speaking about something can make it real. That’s why so many believe every bit of nonsense that comes out of Donald Trump’s mouth.) Get out and show the voters what they can expect from President Biden and a Democratic majority in Congress versus President Trump and a Republican majority in Congress.
A second term for Joe Biden, a House of Representatives controlled by its Democratic Caucus, and a Senate dominated (if not controlled) by its Democratic Caucus and you’ll get:
- Roe vs Wade encoded into law
- Legal protection, voting rights, and other freedoms promised by the Constitutions for all citizens regardless of religion, race, ethnicity, gender, or sexual orientation
- A realignment of the tax code that corrects the bias in favor of the 1% that was introduced by the Trump “tax cuts” without raises the taxes of anyone earning less than $400,000
- A border policy that protects citizens, honors our commitment to asylum seekers, and addresses our growing labor shortage
- Increased efforts to deal with the escalating climate crisis
- Continued leadership among the countries of the World
If we give Trump and his cult a second chance, we’ll get all the wonders promised in the Heritage Foundation’s “Presidential Transition Project” (aka Project 2025):
- A White, Christian, Nationalist Theocracy
- A dismantling of the Civil Service System in favor of appointed cronies
- The elimination of the Department of Education
- An Imperial Presidency with Trump at its head for as long as he lives, retains a minor semblance of sanity and competency, and keeps the favor of his Heritage Foundation puppet masters
- A Department of Justice that’s completely controlled by the President
The Best Way to Win
On Saturday, July 6th, Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania had this to say on MSNBC:
Bernie Sanders was a guest on “Face the Nation” on Sunday morning. He emphasized his support President Biden and provided strong advice for his campaign:
There you have it, Democrats. Stop shooting yourselves in the foot and get the message out to the people … all the people. You can’t do it alone. As of 2023, voters registered as Democrats or Republicans are now tied at about 27% each. 43% are Independents. Don’t forget to focus on the “swing states”. If the President were elected by the popular vote rather than the Electoral College, Donald Trump would never have been elected in the first place.
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My Less Than Humble Opinion 