This Cannot Happen Again
Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Wisconsin Governor, Tony Evers, wanted to delay the state’s primary elections. The State Republican Party knew that the Governor wasn’t really concerned with the health of the voters. There was a State Supreme Court seat at stake. The incumbent was a Republican. Obviously, the Governor was delaying the election to help the judge’s liberal opponent. After all, that’s what they would have done if the situation were reversed.[1]
Wisconsin’s Republican Party took the Governor to court demanding that he hold the election on April 7th as scheduled. They won. This was the result.
There were two important outcomes of Wisconsin’s chaotic and dangerous election:
- In spite of the risk, Wisconsin voters were so incensed by the behavior of the leaders of the Wisconsin Republican Party that they came out in large numbers … and voted for the incumbent’s liberal opponent. Jill Karofsky became the state’s Supreme Court Justice Elect.
- Fifty-two cases of COVID-19 have been connected directly to Wisconsin’s April 7th election.
Unless there is a safe, effective, and widely available vaccine developed and produced before November 2020, Wisconsin’s ill-fated election could be repeated nationwide. We must enact mail-in voting before this year’s Presidential election.
Voter Fraud and Who Commits It
Of course, President Trump[2] is opposed to vote-by-mail:
As usual, Mr. Trump has conflated one of his favorite excuses … that he lost the popular vote because “millions of people voted illegally” … with a settlement about removing inactive registrations from voting rolls. The settlement says nothing about illegal voting. Of course, the President was unable to make his point and then shut up. On April 8th, he exposed his real reason for opposing mail-in voting.
There is evidence that Mr. Trump is correct. Making it easier for U.S. citizens to exercise their right and responsibility to vote “doesn’t work out well for Republicans”.
But what about the other part of the sentence? Does voting by mail create a “tremendous potential for voter fraud”? Let’s look at some statistics on voter fraud collected by the conservative think tank, The Heritage Foundation. The sample includes information related to voter fraud cases that occurred from 1982 through 2020.
This graph shows cases of voter fraud brought before the courts[3] in the years 1982 through 2020. The distribution is obviously skewed toward the present, but I suspect that has more to do with the availability of records than in a sudden rise in voter fraud. The years showing the most cases are, in descending order, 2011, 2010, 2016, 2017, 2009, 2012, 2013, and 2018.
What does the graph tell us about these years? Half of them were Federal Election years and the other half are not. One quarter of them were Presidential Election years.[4] The year with the most election fraud cases by far … with almost twice as many cases as the next highest … is not a Federal Election year.
The years shown in the graph are the years that the courts decided the case. On the average, these cases take about a year from complaint to decision. It’s fairly safe to assume that the actual voter fraud occurred at least a year earlier. Let’s look at 2010, 2019, 2015, 2016, 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2017. Not surprisingly, the Federal Election year and Presidential Election year ratios remain the same … at one half and one quarter respectively. 2012 was a fairly contentious Presidential Election year … and 2016 was unlike any in my memory.[5]
Some varieties of voter fraud are likely to occur only during an actual election. These include:
- Altering The Vote Count
- Duplicate Voting
- Fraudulent Use Of Absentee Ballots
- Illegal Assistance At The Polls
- Ineligible Voting
Other types of voter fraud can occur well in advance of a particular election:
- Ballot Petition Fraud
- Buying Votes
- False Registrations
I’ve ignored the cause “Election Overturned” on the assumption that it refers to legal decisions that may be the result of one of the other types of fraud. I’ve left the cause “Miscellaneous” out of the lists because it implies, “Because we’ve found so few cases of several types of voter fraud, we’ve lumped them together in this category.”
Since we’re discussing voter fraud that might be encouraged by mail-in voting, I’m going to focus on “Fraudulent Use Of Absentee Ballots” (obviously). “Duplicate Voting”, and “Ineligible Voting”. Here’s a pair of graphs of the “Fraudulent Use Of Absentee Ballots” cases:
The graph on the left divides the states according to their Electoral College votes in the four presidential elections in this century[6] … 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. If the state voted Republican in all four elections, it is represented by the red bar. If it voted Republican in three of the four elections, it is represented by the pale red bar. If the state voted Republican in two elections and Democrat in the other two, it is represented by the purple bar. If it voted Democrat in three of the four elections, it is represented by the pale blue bar. If the state voted Democrat in all four elections, it is represented by the blue bar.
The graph on the right divides states according to how their Electoral College votes in the 2016 presidential election only. If the state went for Donald Trump, it is represented by the red bar. If it went for Hillary Clinton, it is represented by the blue bar. If the state split its Electoral College votes between the candidates, it is represented by a purple bar.[7]
Now that we have the color coding out of the way, let’s talk about what the graphs portray. In both graphs, the “solid red” (Republican or “Trumpist”) states are the most guilty of “Fraudulent Use of Absentee Ballot”. If we combine the “pale red” (3 quarters Republican or “Trumpist”) with the “red” and “pale blue” (3 quarters Democrat) with the blue, it’s hard to decide. Here’s the data for the “Fraudulent Use of Absentee Ballot” cases:
- 70 cases came from red states.
- 17 cases came from pale red states.
- 17 cases came from purple states.
- 22 cases came from pale blue states.
- 51 cases came from blue states.
Combining counts from the red and pale red states, we account for 87 of the 177 cases (about 49%). The purple states provided fewer than 10% of the cases. Together, the blue and pale blue states accounted for 73 cases (a bit more than 41%). When it comes to using absentee (aka mail-in) ballots to commit voter fraud it appears that it is the right rather than the left that has been caught cheating … at least during the 21st Century. I guess President Trump was right when he “tweeted” that mail-in voting “doesn’t work out well for Republicans”. Mail-in voting seems to expose the tendency of some of them to cheat.
In his rant to the Press, the President mentioned “bundling” as common form of voter fraud related to mail-in ballots. I think that he was referring to someone “graciously” offering to deliver mail-in ballots, collecting as many as possible, then either modifying them or “losing” them. I was only able to find a reference to one such case. It was reported in February of 2019. The guilty party was a Republican operative. I’m sure Mr. Trump was shocked to hear this … if anybody had the courage to tell him
Let’s move on to “Duplicate Voting”. Here are the graphs derived from The Heritage Foundation’s statistics.
Once again, we find a majority of the cases occurred in states dominated by the Republican Party. Let’s look at “Ineligible Voting”.
Here we have a different story. It’s a split decision. Most voter fraud cases described as “Ineligible Voting” came from states that voted for the Democrat in three out of four presidential elections. In 2016, the majority of such cases came from states that went to President Trump. Let’s take a look at the distribution of the “Ineligible Voting” cases. Perhaps they represent Democrats trying to prevent Mr. Trump’s election.
As shown in the graph above, “Ineligible Voting” cases spiked in 2011. Since the most local elections tend to align with federal elections, we can assume that the 2011 cases were the result of elections in 2010 or, perhaps, 2008. It seems reasonable to believe that the cases most likely to draw the attention of The Heritage Foundation would be those related to national elections. Every two years, all 435 members of the House of Representatives are elected by the citizens of their respective congressional districts. Let’s look at the results of the elections for the House of Representatives in the years surrounding 2011.
These maps show the results of the 2006 and 2008 congressional elections. In 2006, the Democrats won 233 seats and the Republicans won 202 seats. In 2008, the Democrats won 257 seats and the Republicans won 178 seats. The Democrats moved toward 2010 controlling 59% of the seats in the House of Representatives. If the bulk of the 2011 “Ineligible Voting” cases began as a result of Democrats committing voter fraud in 2006 and/or 2008, it was working. Could they continue making gains in 2010?
In 2010, the Republicans gained 63 seats giving them about 55% control of the House. If Democrats committed voter fraud in 2006 and 2008, they forgot how to do it by 2010 … or, most of the guilty had been caught.
These graphs show that the Republicans retained control of the House in 2012 and 2014. The Democrats regained a few seats in 2012, but the Republicans took them back plus a few more in 2014. Democrats would not regain control of the House of Representatives until 2018.
Were the Democrats responsible for the 2011 “Ineligible Voting” spike? Did they take control of the House of Representatives (and the Presidency) in 2008 by cheating? Perhaps, they were. If so, what does “Ineligible Voting” mean? In most of the descriptions I read, the reason the vote was declared ineligible was not defined. The few reasons sited for ineligibility were:
- The voter was a convicted felon.
- The voter was not a U.S. citizen.
- The voter’s registration had expired.
- The voter plead “Ineligible Voting” in exchange for a more serious charge being dropped.
- The voter failed some arcane requirement such as a signature mismatch.
It’s interesting to note that 93.5% of the pale blue states went to Donald Trump in 2016, but we’re looking at states that were blue prior to 2011.[8] With no clear evidence that the Democrats were not responsible for those “Ineligible Voting” cases, we’ll have to assume that they were.
So What have We Learned?
Republican party leaders in many states and President Trump are opposed to mail-in voting. They say that mail-in voting presents an opportunity for wide-spread voter fraud. Not surprisingly, when state and local Republican Party officials take their opposition to court, they present no evidence connecting mail-in voting and voter fraud … because such evidence is practically non-existent. The voter fraud connection is for their voters’ ears; not a judge’s.
President Trump spreads the voter fraud to “the faithful” on Twitter while simultaneously showing no concern about revealing the two real reasons for his opposition:
Republicans should fight very hard when it comes to state wide mail-in voting. Democrats are clamoring for it. Tremendous potential for voter fraud, and for whatever reason, doesn’t work out well for Republicans.
Mr. Trump believes that “Democrats are clamoring for it” is reason enough for his followers to oppose it. After all, it’s reason enough for him. “Tremendous potential for voter fraud” is more fresh meat for his ravenous hoards, but the phrase, “for whatever reason, doesn’t work out well for Republicans” shows his real reason. One wonders whether that addition was driven by his Ego or his Id.
Why Doesn’t Mail-in Voting “Work Out Well for Republicans”?
Is it true that mail-in voting is detrimental to Republican candidates? Perhaps President Trump is just trying to mold public opinion so that he can contest the November election should he lose. Does mail-in voting really do something that “doesn’t work out well for Republicans”? Yes, it does. Mail-in voting tends to improve voter turnout.
Why Would Improved Voter Turnout Hurt Republican Candidates?
Mail-in voting improves voter turnout. Why would this hurt Republicans? Consider these graphs of data collected by Gallup, Inc.:
This graph shows voter registrations for the years 2005 through 2020. In 2004, Republican registrations had a slight lead over both Democrat and Independent registrations. In 2005 and 2006, Democrats had a similar slight lead. In 2007, both Republicans and Democrats lost ground to a soaring increase in Independent registrations. In 2008, both parties seem to have retrieved some voters from the ranks of the Independents[9] with the Democrats taking a slight lead. By 2009, Independents took back the lead and have maintained a sizable registration lead over both major parties. Bill Clinton once said, “Democrats want to fall in love; Republicans just fall in line.” What do Independents do?
This graph may provide an answer. It adds those who, though not registered as Republicans or Democrats, agree and vote with one of the major parties. This is particularly true for a presidential election. After all, the only time a third party candidate has won the Presidency is … well, never. As the graph shows, from 2012 through 2020, the Democrats and those with Democratic Party leanings have been in the majority. Under these conditions, if every registered voter were to vote in accordance with her or his political leanings, the election would not “work out well for Republicans”.
Clearly, they would want to discourage those who would vote for the Democrat from exercising their right. Mail-in Voting … and Early Voting … make it easier to vote. The easier it is to vote, the more likely it is that the election will have a large turnout. The larger the turnout … and the recent distribution of political leanings …, the more likely it is that the Democrats will win. Republican opposition to mail-in voting is about voter suppression.
My regular readers know how I feel about Donald Trump. Tony Schwartz, the ghostwriter for “Trump: The Art of the Deal“, recently wrote an excellent article that presents a lot of insight into what drives our President. Simply put, the only thing Donald Trump cares about is winning, … and, to win, he must dominate someone else.
What about Republicans in Congress and at the State level? Some of them truly believe in their party’s core values. They are less likely to bow at Trump’s altar. Some just want to remain in power. A few, the true Trumpists, may really agree with what they believe to be President Trump’s values. A (hopefully) small number probably agree with the President’s single real value … winning no matter what.[10]
The Times They Are A Changin’ [11]
Those in power want to stay in power. Those who are powerless want to gain power. Those who truly believe in the Constitution and the rule of law want to share power for the good of all of the people. The United States is an experiment to determine whether a group of inherently flawed humans can join to form a humane society. Access to the vote for all citizens is a necessary component of that experiment. The COVID-19 Pandemic is a severe threat to that access. If mail-in voting were available to all voters who want it, the need to choose between voting and fighting the SARS-CoV-2 virus would be eliminated.
We’ve seen that warnings of mail-in voting leading to massive voter fraud are at best mistaken and may, in fact, be an effort to suppress the vote. What about the fears that mail-in voting will create so many complications that it just won’t work.
We have been using mail-in voting in Federal elections for at least 34 years. We call it absentee voting. In some states, no excuse is needed for requesting an absentee ballot. Others require a valid reason for requesting an absentee ballot … such as being a permanent resident of Florida, but being required to live in the White House because of your current job.[12] Isn’t risk of personal infection and/or spreading the virus a sufficiently valid reason for voting absentee?
Has any state used mail-in voting to create a successful process for voting during a pandemic? Yes, Kentucky’s June 23, 2020 primaries surprised a lot of critics by incorporating wide-spread mail-in voting.[13] The primaries were originally scheduled to be held on May 19th, but on March 16th, Governor Andy Beshear and Secretary of State Michael Adams rescheduled them because of concerns over public health.
Governor Beshear is a Democrat. Secretary of State Adams is a Republican. Kentucky’s success came from their bipartisan plan. Kentucky already had an absentee ballot system that required anyone requesting a mail-in ballot to provide a reason why he or she would not be able to vote in person on election day. One of the first things that Beshear and Adams did was to eliminate that restriction. Any voter who requested an absentee ballot received an absentee ballot. Some counties even set up “in-person absentee voting” (aka early voting). The Governor and Secretary of State did everything they could to encourage voting before election day as a means of preventing large crowds at the polls. Kentucky voters heard their recommendation and followed it.
There were some problems … especially in Kentucky’s largest cities, Louisville and Lexington. Louisville had some logistical problems. Lexington experienced longer lines than had been hoped. In spite of these glitches, Kentucky had the largest voter turnout in 12 years. Both the ACLU and the League of Women Voters praised Kentucky’s success. Even some earlier naysayers expressed pleasant surprise.
Of course, it took a few days to tally the final results. If enough states follow Kentucky’s lead, election night results are probably a thing of the past. After voters gain easier ways to participate in our democratic processes, they’re not likely to give them up. Sorry, cable news channels. You’ll have to come up with some other election night melodrama.
Many Republicans disagree with “Donald and the Trumpists”.[14] Many GOP leaders favor mail-in voting … especially those in the “swing states“. Many older voters[15] and many in rural areas vote Republican. It’s particularly popular in Arizona and Florida. President Trump is opposed to a voting procedure that is used and appreciated by members of his own party living in states that he needs to win in order to be re-elected.
Is the President crazy? That question is a subject of debate among many of his detractors. Does he have the attention span of a mayfly?[16] Much of what he says, tweets, and does is evidence of an inability to focus on anything for more than a few minutes. Might Mr. Trump have more basic ulterior motives?
Mail-in voting puts a tremendous burden on the United States Postal System. President Trump wants to reduce Federal funding of the Post Office. He believes that the Post Office is funding Amazon by giving the company a bulk mailing deal that is too liberal. He has threatened to cut-off funding unless the Post Office raises Amazon’s rates. Jeff Bezos owns Amazon. He also owns the Washington Post. The Washington Post has made a habit of pointing out Mr. Trump’s questionable decisions, bizarre behaviors, and lies. Are the President’s counter-intuitive attacks on mail-in voting some sort of complicated reverse quid pro quo directed at Jeff Bezos?[17]
As state after state issued stay-at home orders in March and April, it became evident that the pandemic was likely to interfere with some states’ primary elections. Some states rescheduled their primaries. Some states went directly to vote-by-mail. Some states rescheduled their elections. After a battle in the state legislature, Wisconsin moved forward with its original plans. The results were chaotic. Early in-person voting was crippled when, fearing for their health, thousands of poll workers resigned. Thousands of voters requested absentee ballots, but never received them. Voters were forced to choose between losing their chance to vote and risking their health. Many took the risk. Some lost.
During the last to weeks of April, Gallup ran a poll that asked voters’ opinions of mail-in voting. This graph shows the results of that survey.
The first column shows that “All Americans” favor mail-in voting almost 2 to 1. Only Republicans show a majority in opposition. No doubt many of them were influenced by the gloom and doom warnings coming from their “fearless leader”. How many more would favor mail-in voting if the poll were repeated today?
At the end of April, we did not have the evidence of Kentucky’s successful hybrid election. We could not imagine that the pandemic would be so severely mismanaged by the Federal government and a lot of state governments. We had no idea that the combined mistrust of science and government would lead the United States to have 26% of the World’s COVID-19 cases and 24% of the World’s deaths with only 4% of the World’s population. Some feared that the November general election might be threatened by a computer virus, but the threat of interference by a human virus was inconceivable.
The virus doesn’t care about our politics, election, and right to vote. It doesn’t care about our deeply held beliefs nor our Constitution and rule of law. It doesn’t care about our individual rights and freedoms. It doesn’t care if you and I live or die. Its only purpose is to reproduce itself.[18] It won’t just “go away”. We’re not likely to have a safe, effective, and widely-available vaccine by November 3rd. If we want to beat it, if we want to choose our leaders, we have to fight with what’s available now. We must work together to protect each other from infection while exercising our right and responsibility of voting. Elections that add mail-in and early voting are valuable assets that we cannot ignore.
[ Election 2020 Sub-Menu ]
[ Main Menu ]
End Notes
- The Republicans believed that the supporters of liberal candidate Jill Karofsky would stay home in fear of the pandemic, but Republican voters would, as always, fall in line.
Return to Point of Reference
- I still hate writing the name “Trump” with the title “President” in front of it.
Return to Point of Reference
- The cases shown in the graph include all cases brought before the courts. Most led to a conviction, but some ended in acquittal.
Return to Point of Reference
- In the United States, any year that is evenly divisible by two is a Federal Election year. Any year that is evenly divisible by four is also a Presidential Election year. The terms of all members of the House of Representatives and those of roughly one third of the members of the Senate expire every two years. The Federal Elections that occur between Presidential Election years (eg., 2010 and 2018) are called Mid-term Elections because they are in the middle of the President’s current term.
Return to Point of Reference
- The first Presidential Election that I recall occurred in 1952. The 1960 Presidential Election is the first one that really had my attention.
Return to Point of Reference
- The 2000 Presidential Election was the last one of the 20th Century. The Gregorian calendar has no year zero. The end of any century is the “century year”, e.g. 100 for the 1st Century or 2000 for the 20th Century.
Return to Point of Reference
- Two states, Maine and Nebraska, distribute their electoral votes proportionally based on the state’s popular vote. They are the only states that can be purple in a single presidential election. In 2016, Trump won all of Nebraska’s electoral votes; Maine split its electoral votes between Trump and Clinton. The only voter fraud cases in Maine related to the 2016 election were for duplicate voting.
Return to Point of Reference
- Remember, a state was defined as pale blue if it went to the Democrats for 3 out of 4 of the 21st Century Presidential elections. By definition, the 93.5% that went to Trump in 2016 had to have gone to the Democrat’s nominee in 2004, 2008, and 2012.
Return to Point of Reference
- In 2008, there was no incumbent president. Some states, like mine, have open primaries wherein Independents get to choose in which primary they want to vote. Many don’t. It seems reasonable to assume that some voters switch from Independent to Republican or Democrat in order to help select a candidate for one of the major parties.
Return to Point of Reference
- President Trump has made it very clear that he wants the vote of those who believe that Great equals White … particularly those who want someone to hold inferior and to blame. What those followers do not understand is that their “beloved leader” considers them to be inferior too. Howard Stern, who has known Donald Trump for many years, spoke candidly about him on his SiriusXM radio show.
“The oddity in all of this is the people Trump despises most, love him the most,” said Stern on Tuesday. “The people who are voting for Trump, for the most part … He wouldn’t even let them in a f*cking hotel. He’d be disgusted by them. Go to Mar-a-Lago, see if there’s any people who look like you. I’m talking to you in the audience.”
President Trump is a racist, but not a White Nationalist in the normal sense. The only thing he cares about is winning. He will use and abuse anyone that serves that end. The only thing he fears is looking like a loser … in accordance with his twisted impression of what a loser looks like, … and perhaps, a bigger bully than himself, like Vladimir Putin.
Return to Point of Reference
- The Times They Are A Changing
Bob Dylan, Bob Dylan & The Band
Come gather ’round, people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You’ll be drenched to the bone
If your time to you is worth savin’
And you better start swimmin’
Or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’
Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won’t come again
And don’t speak too soon
For the wheel’s still in spin
And there’s no tellin’ who
That it’s namin’
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin’
Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
The battle outside ragin’
Will soon shake your windows
And rattle your wall
For the times they are a-changin’
Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don’t criticize
What you can’t understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is rapidly agin’
Please get out of the new one if you can’t lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin’
The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is rapidly fadin’
And the first one now will later be last
For the times they are a-changin’
Return to Point of Reference
- President Donald Trump, First Lady Melania Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and Second Lady Karen Pence, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany, Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Melania Trump’s chief of staff and former White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, Attorney General Bill Barr, Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow, Senior Trump campaign advisor Nick Ayers, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue. White House counselor Kellyanne Conway, Trump deputy campaign manager Bill Stepien and Trump campaign chief operations officer Michael Glassner have all voted by mail recently. Perhaps they haven’t heard how fraud-laden mail-in voting is. Perhaps they have heard and believe the fraud will favor their candidates.
President Trump and the members of his administration have every right to vote by mail. For example, Florida has “no excuse” absentee voting. It’s just a bit hypocritical for any who support the President’s stance on the subject.
Return to Point of Reference
- Some prominent national figures predicted that the Kentucky primaries would be a major disaster … especially for the Democrats.
They
saw the drastically reduced number of polling places as an effort to suppress voting. After all, Kentucky is, from the point of view of the Democratic Party, the home of two of the most obstructionist members of the Senate … Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Kentucky’s junior senator, Rand Paul.
Return to Point of Reference
- I don’t mean to insult real Republicans. I know that the President and his cult oppose a number of important things that the Republican Party has favored for decades.
Return to Point of Reference
- It may even be “most” older voters, but it certainly isn’t all of us. I want to scream every time I hear a host or guest on a cable news program talk about “older” voters as though we were a monolithic group. Don’t they know that ageism is a form of bigotry … or are they just verbally lazy.
Return to Point of Reference
- The average mayfly has a lifespan of 24 hours. He or she has very little time to contemplate the mysteries of the Universe.
Return to Point of Reference
- It’s so easy to create a conspiracy theory. If President Trump ever connected Jeff Bezos, Amazon, and the Washington Post to Mail-in Voting it was only for a short time. If those dots were ever connected, somebody other than Mr. Trump did the connecting. Our president transmits conspiracy theories. He lacks the creativity to create them.
Return to Point of Reference
- Viruses are not even really alive as we normally define the term. They are bits of genetic code … essentially software … that must invade a cell and reprogram it to produces copies of itself. Computer virus were so named because they do the same thing to your computer that a human virus does to you.
Return to Point of Reference
[ Election 2020 Sub-Menu ]
[ Main Menu ]
My Less Than Humble Opinion 
12 thoughts on “Election 2020 #9”